U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast

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March 15, 2018 - Banking Credit Cards Innovation Investing Lending Our Leaders Small Business & Commercial DC, DE, MD, VA Florida Maine New England New Jersey, New York and PA North and South Carolina

The U.S. government has doubled down on fiscal stimulus with $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years and a bi-partisan budget that adds $300 billion to discretionary spending limits over the next two years.

But does priming the pump risk flooding the engine? Our economic forecast looks at:

  • Boost from tax cuts: The deficit-financed stimulus is expected to lift economic growth to 2.7% in 2018 and 2.9% in 2019.
  • Inflation: Faster inflation argues for a faster pace of Fed rate hikes, which help to dampen the impact of fiscal stimulus.
  • Paying the piper: The federal deficit is expected to reach 5% of GDP in 2019. What are the consequences of the heavier debt load on future growth prospects? What could happen in the next downturn?

Read the full report at TD Economics


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