U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast

December 14, 2017 - Banking Consumer Insights Investing DC, DE, MD, VA Florida Maine New England New Jersey, New York and PA North and South Carolina United States

The U.S. economy has outperformed expectations since the last quarterly forecast, according to TD Economics:

  • The U.S. economy has considerable momentum heading into 2018. Unemployment is at a 17-year low, businesses are ramping up investment and inflation remains contained. With most of 2017 now on the books, real GDP growth is on track to post a 2.3% pace for the year.
  • We have upgraded our forecast to 2.6% next year and to 2.3% in 2019 due to momentum, and an anticipated boost from tax cuts. While the details are not yet final, Congress appears to be days away from passing a deficit-financed tax cut that would provide a short-term lift to demand, and likely add roughly $1 trillion dollars to the national debt.
  • Given the economy is running nearly full tilt, fiscal stimulus is likely stoke to higher wages and inflation. That could result in a slightly faster pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, ultimately dampening the support to growth.

Read the full report in PDF format

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